2008-06-26 - Russia v Spain

Euro 2008

2008-06-26 - Russia v Spain

Sports Betting Preview by Gooner

Russia vs Spain
UEFA Euro 2008 - Semi-Final
Ernst Happel Stadion, Vienna
Thursday 26th June 2008 - KO 19:45

RUSSIA

Russia have come on in leaps and bounds during the course of this tournament as Guss Hiddinks young side have showed that they are learning their football lessons fast.

Russia have the youngest squad in Austria/Switzerland and Hiddink’s intensive fitness work in the build-up to tournaments is also paying dividends with his team noticeably fresher than their rivals in the last two games – perhaps helped by the fact the Russian season only starts in March.

Make no mistake - Russia deserved their victory over the Netherlands (who had themselves looked so good in previous matches) and a similar performance in the semi-final could be a winning one.

Russia are young, fresh, and have tremendous belief in their adopted coach, so I expect another attacking approach in Vienna.

SPAIN

Spain buried a jinx on Sunday night, after edging past Italy on penalties to remove an 88-year barrier that had been haunting them regularly.

But this was not a fluid performance from Spain, who seemed almost paralysed by their Azzurri opponents and the Spanish side will have to put on a much better show against Russia in order to make the final.

Spain may have finally defeated an old foe, but the Azzurri were tired old men, and now Spain have to refocus on an energetic Russian side and not expect things to be as easy as their 4-1 group win.

HEAD TO HEAD

Spain and Russia clashed in the opening game of Group D, and the Spanish attack had a field day scoring four times in a very comfortable 4-1 victory.

That was the biggest margin of victory and the highest scoring game in any of the nine clashes between the two nations.

Overall Spain hold a 5-3-1 record over Russia, with the only Russia victory a 2-1 success in Moscow way back in 1971.

TEAM NEWS

Russia will be without two players for the semi-final as defender Denis Kolodin and attacking midfielder Dmitri Torbinski were cautioned for a second time in Saturday’s 3-1 win over the Netherlands.

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Spain had no players recieve another yellow card in the shoot-out win against Italy meaning coach Luis Aragonés will have a full complement of players to choose from.

THE VERDICT

This one is a very tricky game to call - and undoubtedly the stature and importance of the match will affect the way the game is played.

I previously recommended taking Russia on handicap against the Netherlands because we were getting such a great price, and because even though they were play an "in-form" opponent - if Russia attacked then they could cause problems.

It’s ALMOST exactly the same situation here, but the punters are a little wiser this time so the prices on the Russians are not quite so strong.

Also there is a question around whether Russian coach Guus Hiddink will continue to "throw caution to the winds" and play the attacking style - knowing that he is so close to the final?

For that matter, Spain might have beaten Italy, but they’re hardly over their tag as the "choakers" of European football. I was not impressed with Spain against Italy - but they should get more space in this match.

I’m going to rate this game much the same as the Russian quarter-final with Spain having a better group of individuals … but which team has the mental toughness to perform on this stage?

The Pick :

Russia 1-1 Spain (or 1-2)

 

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Russia 25% - Draw 25% - Spain 50%

 

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

No bet on the 90 minute result. Unfortunately this time I agree with the bookmakers - and there is little value to be found.

I’ll take a look at the special bets in the next 12 hours - and see if I can find a play.

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